As I visit with people and/or overhear conversations, there seems to always be the question of when will this market turn? Not only when it will turn but will it be a repeat of the bubble we saw in
Groundhog Day 2018 Will Punxsutawney Phil See His Shadow
As the legend goes, if Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow, we will see six more weeks of winter and below-average temperatures. If our favorite groundhog from Pennsylvania does not see his shadow, then an early spring is on its way with above-average temperatures.
Phil will climb up out of his burrow – roughly the midway point of astronomical winter – at sunrise Friday to see what he can see, or not see.
But how accurate is Phil?
In short, not very. The groundhog has been accurate only 39 percent of the time since the first Groundhog Day in 1887, according to StormFax.com. The groundhog has no predictive skill, NOAA said. Although there has been only "one" Phil for the last 130 years, he's gotten slightly more accurate in recent years, with an accuracy of about 46 percent since 1988.
Last year, Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow, predicting six more weeks of winter. That was followed by the second-warmest February on record in the Lower 48 states, the ninth-warmest March and the 11th-warmest April.
Meteorological spring begins March 1, and astronomical spring begins March 20.